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🔆 In This Economy?! Geopolitical Considerations & AI
A closer look at how global powers are racing to dominate technology, alien-inspired AI food, and important considerations to understand geopolitics. Keep reading to learn more!
Sarah, Emma and Allegra at Lumiera.ai
February 28, 2024
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🗞️ Issue 7 // ⏱️ Read Time: 8 min
Hello 👋
A few weeks ago, Team Lumiera looked at AI chips and the accessibility and control of AI hardware. We concluded that technology, such as generative AI, is a powerful bargaining tool in global economy and politics. This week, we look more closely at this race to dominate technology, from the perspective of geopolitics and large themes dominating diplomatic efforts today.
In This Week’s Newsletter
What are we talking about? The role that technological development, particularly AI, is playing in geopolitics. Geopolitics examines how countries, non-state entities, and other international actors use territory and other factors for political gain in a global context.
How is it relevant? The control of hardware and data needed to maintain and develop AI, as well as ideas around the regulation of AI, are becoming important power tools in international relations today. This will have a considerable impact on how businesses and organisations operate in different regions.
Why does it matter? As we continue to see developments in AI technology, awareness regarding geopolitical power dynamics should be part of any due diligence conducted by businesses, governments, and organisations looking to make smart, responsible, and strategic decisions.
Even though it’s too early to predict the exact impact of current exponential technological advancements, including generative AI, on geopolitics, everyone is offering their two cents on the matter - including Team Lumiera. Let’s start with a relatively basic and straightforward statement: generative AI is affecting geopolitics, and geopolitics affects, well, everything. 🤷🏽♀️
We entered 2024 painfully aware of the geopolitical tension currently defining the global state of affairs. Predictions of how continued tension would affect global markets hailed in, alongside questions around which role AI would and should play. Amidst this tension, governments worldwide are grappling with ways to approach AI. The Swedish government created an AI commission late last year, the UK government has set up multisectoral task teams within sectors such as defence, and the EU recently announced the creation of a European AI Agency. The United Nations also has several AI projects underway, such as the High-Level Advisory Board on AI whose main purpose is to look at how AI can be used for the common good. Global powers care, and business leaders do too.
In which way can leaders (diplomats/industry leaders/governments) contribute to a global conversation on AI that is relevant and has actual impact?
Diplomacy at its best is a forum where matters of global importance and impact can be discussed, especially when the issues are extremely sensitive. Example at hand: generative AI. How the global conversation develops is in the hands of governments and leaders that shape the conversation. It is a question of prioritisation. The related moves in the international arena are currently looking more like a race toward dominance than a discussion on how to best harness this technology equitably and responsibly. The big global powers are racing to position themselves in a way that is most beneficial to their interests, and the list of interests is long and not always coherent.
Beyond this, there are world leaders asking themselves whether generative AI can solve the climate crisis and whether it is wise to continue the adoption of AI technology in weapons systems. 🌪️ Making your head spin? You are not alone. Diplomats worldwide have had to take a crash course in all things AI (maybe even by reading this newsletter!) to grasp how this rapidly advancing technology is affecting the world stage. As development continues, seeking AI alignment at the international level could be one of the most significant challenges of the 21st century.
Here are a few geopolitical factors that Team Lumiera is keeping an eye on:
There is a risk that the development of responsible AI using transparent and open source solutions could take a hit if governments focus on protectionism instead of global sharing mechanisms for AI technology. What happens when global powers are racing and being protective at the same time?
Geopolitics is about power. The increasing importance of AI on the scene could perpetuate already existing power imbalances. How can nations with less political power, but large deposits of critical resources, leverage this so shared benefits can become a reality for nations such as the DRC and Zambia? Our global track record is not great in this regard.
AI due diligence is a sector to watch. Understanding geopolitics is vital for businesses seeking to minimise risks, maximise returns, and stay ahead of competitors. Businesses looking to establish their operations in various regions will want to know what the regional approach is to generative AI, not only for compliance reasons but also to perform proper due diligence and risk assessments. Calculated risk = Opportunity.
Data is a major diplomatic tool. Global powers will be looking to export their ideas around, and through, generative AI. Sensitive user data can be collected by governments, and algorithms adjusted to align with state policy are already a thing. How is our agency affected when our notion of reality can be shaped by our social media feeds and the algorithms behind them?
What we are excited about:
The uncanny valley version of food: Amusing and confusing AI-generated food images, like this grape salad with cream cheese that looks like something aliens would cook.
⛔ Incident: Rewriting history (in the worst way imaginable) Google’s AI image generator, Gemini’s (formerly Bard), attempts to deal with biases resulted in embarrassing results. This created headlines such as Google Chatbot’s A.I. Images Put People of Colour in Nazi-Era Uniforms. Wild, right? The company has temporarily suspended the option of generating human images and is aiming to relaunch in a few weeks.
💘 Mistral & Microsoft sealed the deal A partnership between the French OpenAI competitor Mistral and the IT giant was announced. Mistral influenced the French position in the negotiations of the EU AI Act and could be a way for Microsoft to diversify its portfolio. It also highlights the symbiosis between big and small actors in the field: Small(er) startups are positioned to supercharge innovation and bring new products to market, whilst big tech companies have the resources and expertise to scale up those products. Concerns around big tech influencing regulation are already being raised.
Until next time.
On behalf of Team Lumiera
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